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Mirandes vs Racing Ferrol — Segunda División 2018

Mirandes
Mirandes
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
2/14/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 27Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mirandes51%
×Draw26%
Racing Ferrol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandes
1.48
Racing Ferrol
0.89

Mirandes creates 66% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mirandes
1.42
Racing Ferrol
0.67

allows per match

Mirandes
1.11
Racing Ferrol
1.55

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw
77%
Mirandes or Racing Ferrol
74%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
49%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+
26%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals
77%
Mirandes 2+ goals
43%
Mirandes 3+ goals
19%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
59%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
22%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)
69%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 149 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mirandes scores more
51%
level
26%
Racing Ferrol scores more
23%

Mirandes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Racing Ferrol

Mirandes beat Racing Ferrol 4-1 in Segunda División on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.