Mirandes 1–0 Oviedo: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oviedo

Raúl García 45'

3/4/2023

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Mirandes43%

×Draw28%

Oviedo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchOviedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.03

Mirandes

1.30

Oviedo

1.03

Mirandes creates 26% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 151 away

1.42

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Oviedo

0.95

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Oviedo

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Oviedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Oviedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Oviedo

72%

Draw or Oviedo

57%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

19%

Oviedo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

73%

Mirandes 2+ goals

37%

Mirandes 3+ goals

14%

Oviedo 1+ goals

64%

Oviedo 2+ goals

28%

Oviedo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

59%

Oviedo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Oviedo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Oviedo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Oviedo attack 0.95 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandes scores more

43%

level

28%

Oviedo scores more

29%

Mirandes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Beñat Prados

Mirandes · D

7.5

Match Events

35'

Alejandro Barbudo Barbu

40'

Luismi

45'

Raúl García↳ Roberto López

46'

David Costas← Rodri Tarín

46'

Ángel Montoro← Luismi

46'

Mascarenhas← Manu Vallejo

51'

David Costas

57'

Borja Sánchez← M. Flores

67'

Manu García← Roberto López

69'

Raul Moro← Lucas Ahijado

75'

Álvaro Sanz← César Gelabert

85'

Jofre Carreras← Óscar Pinchi

90+2'

Ángel Montoro

90'

Raúl Moro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesOviedo

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots7

2Corners2

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots7

2On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked0

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

544Total Passes335

426Accurate Passes233

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1