Mirandes 1–1 Oviedo: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oviedo

Pacheco 58'

Marco Sangalli 90+1'

9/19/2020

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Mirandes43%

×Draw28%

Oviedo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchOviedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.03

Mirandes

1.30

Oviedo

1.03

Mirandes creates 26% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 151 away

1.42

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Oviedo

0.95

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Oviedo

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Oviedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Oviedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

71%

Mirandes or Oviedo

72%

Draw or Oviedo

57%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

19%

Oviedo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

73%

Mirandes 2+ goals

37%

Mirandes 3+ goals

14%

Oviedo 1+ goals

64%

Oviedo 2+ goals

28%

Oviedo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

59%

Oviedo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Oviedo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Oviedo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Oviedo attack 0.95 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandes scores more

43%

level

28%

Oviedo scores more

29%

Mirandes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Pacheco

Mirandes · M

7.3

Match Events

20'

Marco Sangalli← Viti Rozada

37'

Marco SangalliGoal cancelled

54'

Marco Sangalli

58'

Pacheco↳ C. Martínez

63'

Samuel Obeng

65'

Nahuel Leiva← Javi Mier

69'

Víctor Meseguer

74'

Javi Muñoz← Víctor Meseguer

79'

Antonio Caballero

80'

Javi Jiménez← M. Ezzarfani

80'

Javi Cueto← Borja Sánchez

82'

Mossa

89'

Mario García← B. Letić

90'

Carlos Julio Martinez

90+1'

Marco Sangalli↳ S. Grippo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesOviedo

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots6

4Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots6

5On Target2

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

282Total Passes310

158Accurate Passes190

56%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Oviedo

Mirandes and Oviedo drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 19, 2020.

Goals: Pacheco (58'), Marco Sangalli (90+1').

Oviedo controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Oviedo — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Oviedo