Mirandes 1–1 Girona: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Girona

Matheus Barrozo 83' (pen)

C. Stuani 74' (pen)

3/1/2020

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Mirandes42%

×Draw27%

Girona30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchGirona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.08

Mirandes

1.32

Girona

1.08

Mirandes creates 22% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 72 away

1.42

creates per match

1.04

1.11

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Girona

1.04

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Girona

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Girona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Girona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

70%

Mirandes or Girona

73%

Draw or Girona

58%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

19%

Girona wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

73%

Mirandes 2+ goals

38%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

Girona 1+ goals

66%

Girona 2+ goals

29%

Girona 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

58%

Girona (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Girona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Girona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Girona attack 1.04 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mirandes scores more

42%

level

27%

Girona scores more

30%

Mirandes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Limones

Mirandes · G

7.5

Match Events

65'

Brandon← Álex Gallar

66'

Kijera← M. Sagnan

72'

Matheus Barrozo← Álvaro Rey

73'

Borja García← Jairo Izquierdo

74'

C. StuaniPenalty

78'

Mickael Malsa

79'

Pablo Maffeo

81'

Limones

83'

Matheus BarrozoPenalty

85'

Johan Mojica

86'

Álvaro Peña← Iñigo Vicente

89'

Jozabed← Samuel Sáiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesGirona

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots12

4Corners5

11Fouls23

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target6

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

3Inside Box4

7Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

360Total Passes349

243Accurate Passes233

68%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls23

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3