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Mirandes vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Mirandes
Mirandes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
11/9/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Mirandes43%
×Draw27%
Extremadura30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandes
1.36
Extremadura
1.09

Mirandes creates 25% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mirandes
1.42
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Mirandes
1.11
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw
70%
Mirandes or Extremadura
73%
Draw or Extremadura
57%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+
20%
Extremadura wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals
74%
Mirandes 2+ goals
39%
Mirandes 3+ goals
16%
Extremadura 1+ goals
66%
Extremadura 2+ goals
30%
Extremadura 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)
59%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 149 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandes scores more
43%
level
27%
Extremadura scores more
30%

Mirandes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Mirandes 2–0 Extremadura

Mirandes beat Extremadura 2-0 in Segunda División on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.