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Mirandes vs Cultural Leonesa — Segunda División 2018

Mirandes
Mirandes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
4/26/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 37Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mirandes47%
×Draw25%
Cultural Leonesa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandes
1.56
Cultural Leonesa
1.13

Mirandes creates 38% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mirandes
1.42
Cultural Leonesa
1.14

allows per match

Mirandes
1.11
Cultural Leonesa
1.71

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw
72%
Mirandes or Cultural Leonesa
75%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
53%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+
24%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals
79%
Mirandes 2+ goals
46%
Mirandes 3+ goals
21%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
68%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
31%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)
63%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 149 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.14 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mirandes scores more
47%
level
25%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
28%

Mirandes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Cultural Leonesa

Mirandes beat Cultural Leonesa 2-1 in Segunda División on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.