Mirandes 1–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Castellón

N. Jackson 12'

David Cubillas 68'

11/28/2020

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mirandes28%

×Draw23%

Castellón49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.81

Mirandes

1.33

Castellón

1.81

Castellón creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.23

creates per match

2.18

1.43

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Castellón

2.18

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Castellón

1.44

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Castellón-0.61scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

51%

Mirandes or Castellón

77%

Draw or Castellón

72%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

12%

Castellón wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

38%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

Castellón 1+ goals

84%

Castellón 2+ goals

54%

Castellón 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

37%

Castellón (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Castellón away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Castellón defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Castellón attack 2.18 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mirandes scores more

28%

level

23%

Castellón scores more

49%

Castellón at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

David Cubillas

Castellón · F

7.9

Match Events

12'

N. Jackson↳ Pacheco

46'

Sergio Moreno← N. Jackson

61'

I. Zlatanović← Adrián Lapeña

61'

Víctor García← Álvaro Fidalgo

63'

Victor Garcia Marin

66'

Pablo Martínez← N. Djouahra

68'

David Cubillas↳ Guillem Jaime

74'

M. Ezzarfani← C. Martínez

75'

Víctor Gómez← E. Jirka

80'

Eneko Satrustegui

81'

César Díaz← Arturo Molina

86'

Luís Gustavo← Jamelli

87'

Jordi Sánchez← David Cubillas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesCastellón

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots6

4Corners3

14Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots6

1On Target2

6Off Target2

3Blocked2

4Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

460Total Passes436

371Accurate Passes339

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1