Castellón 3–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mirandes

O. Camara 90', 65'

M. Doue 6'

C. Fernandez 41' (pen)

12/15/2025

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Castellón46%

×Draw25%

Mirandes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Castellón

1.60

Mirandes

1.21

Castellón creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.76

creates per match

1.05

1.36

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Castellón

1.76

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Castellón

1.36

Mirandes

1.44

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Castellón+0.49scores more

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

71%

Castellón or Mirandes

75%

Draw or Mirandes

54%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

24%

Mirandes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

80%

Castellón 2+ goals

47%

Castellón 3+ goals

22%

Mirandes 1+ goals

70%

Mirandes 2+ goals

34%

Mirandes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

62%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 8 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.76 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Castellón defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castellón scores more

46%

level

25%

Mirandes scores more

29%

Castellón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

O. Camara

Castellón · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

M. Doue↳ A. Mabil

34'

Jeremy Mellot

40'

Marc-Olivier Doué

41'

C. FernandezPenalty

53'

Ousmane Camara

53'

B. Gerenabarrena← M. Doue

53'

O. Camara← N. Markanich

59'

Alberto Jiménez

59'

Adrián Pica

65'

O. Camara↳ Barri

67'

Tincho← Alcazar

67'

I. Suero← P. Santiago

69'

M. Pascual← A. Pica

69'

A. Cardero← P. Perez

69'

S. El Jebari← I. Varela

76'

M. Illesca← T. Helguera

79'

Fernando Medrano

84'

F. Brignani← A. Jimenez

85'

90+6'

90+6'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónMirandes

Overview

61%Possession39%

17Total Shots10

5Corners4

16Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target2

5Off Target6

6Blocked2

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

467Total Passes292

379Accurate Passes185

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Castellón vs Mirandes

Castellón beat Mirandes 3-1 in Segunda División on December 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Doue (6'), C. Fernandez (41' pen), O. Camara (65', 90').

Castellón controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Castalia in Castellon.

Castellón vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Castellón vs Mirandes