Mirandes 1–2 Cadiz: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cadiz

Martín Merquelanz 86'

Álex 90' (pen)

Alberto Perea 61'

8/24/2019

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mirandes43%

×Draw26%

Cadiz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.14

Mirandes

1.41

Cadiz

1.14

Mirandes creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.23

creates per match

0.85

1.43

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Cadiz

0.85

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Cadiz

1.58

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

70%

Mirandes or Cadiz

74%

Draw or Cadiz

57%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Cadiz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

76%

Mirandes 2+ goals

41%

Mirandes 3+ goals

17%

Cadiz 1+ goals

68%

Cadiz 2+ goals

32%

Cadiz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

59%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandes scores more

43%

level

26%

Cadiz scores more

30%

Mirandes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Álex

Cadiz · M

7.9

Match Events

22'

30'

35'

46'

46'

Nano← Jon Garrido

57'

Juan Cala

59'

José Mari← Y. Bodiger

61'

Alberto Perea

64'

E. Ohemeng← Galder Cerrajería

72'

Iñigo Vicente← Mario Barco

82'

C. González← Kijera

83'

Javi Navarro← Caye Quintana

86'

Martín Merquelanz

90'

Iñigo Vicente

90'

ÁlexPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesCadiz

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots14

6Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots14

1On Target5

4Off Target7

4Blocked2

2Inside Box10

7Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

347Total Passes488

257Accurate Passes413

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls15

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

4Offsides2