Cadiz 3–3 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Mirandes

Nano 90'

J. Rhyner 47'

A. Lozano 40'

Odei Onaindia 90+7'

Jon Guridi 90+5'

Martín Merquelanz 42'

1/15/2020

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Ramón de Carranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cadiz38%

×Draw28%

Mirandes35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.17

Cadiz

1.24

Mirandes

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.04

creates per match

1.05

1.28

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Cadiz

1.04

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Cadiz

1.28

Mirandes

1.44

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Cadiz-0.54scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

65%

Cadiz or Mirandes

72%

Draw or Mirandes

62%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

16%

Mirandes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

71%

Cadiz 2+ goals

35%

Cadiz 3+ goals

13%

Mirandes 1+ goals

69%

Mirandes 2+ goals

33%

Mirandes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

52%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.04 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Cadiz defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cadiz scores more

38%

level

28%

Mirandes scores more

35%

Cadiz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Martín Merquelanz

Mirandes · M

7.8

Match Events

33'

Mickael Malsa

40'

A. Lozano↳ A. Espino

42'

Martín Merquelanz↳ Maranhão

47'

J. Rhyner

63'

Nano← Alejo

68'

Álvaro Peña← Antonio Sánchez

72'

Jorge Pombo← Sergio González

79'

Iñigo Vicente← Álvaro Rey

82'

Javi Navarro← Alberto Perea

84'

Mario Barco← M. Malsa

90'

Nano↳ Jorge Pombo

90+5'

Jon Guridi

90+7'

Odei Onaindia↳ Martín Merquelanz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizMirandes

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots8

6Corners2

18Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target6

5Off Target1

1Blocked1

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

368Total Passes487

267Accurate Passes400

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls17

0Yellow Cards1