Mirandés II 0–0 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

Mirandés II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Burgos

11/14/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mirandés II52%

×Draw25%

Real Burgos23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mirandés IIExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.99

Mirandés II

1.62

Real Burgos

0.99

Mirandés II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 30 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

0.99

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Mirandés II

1.34

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

Mirandés II

0.99

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Real Burgos →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw

77%

Mirandés II or Real Burgos

75%

Draw or Real Burgos

48%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+

28%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals

80%

Mirandés II 2+ goals

48%

Mirandés II 3+ goals

22%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

63%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

26%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)

69%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.62

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mirandés II scores more

52%

level

25%

Real Burgos scores more

23%

Mirandés II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff