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Mirandés II vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 17Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mirandés II60%
×Draw22%
Laguna de Duero18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.87
Laguna de Duero
0.90

Mirandés II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
82%
Mirandés II or Laguna de Duero
78%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
40%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
35%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
85%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
56%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
29%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
59%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
23%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
77%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.87

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mirandés II scores more
60%
level
22%
Laguna de Duero scores more
18%

Mirandés II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Mirandés II 3–1 Laguna de Duero

Mirandés II beat Laguna de Duero 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.