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Mirandés II vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
3/21/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 27Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Mirandés II45%
×Draw27%
La Virgen del Camino28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.39
La Virgen del Camino
1.02

Mirandés II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
72%
Mirandés II or La Virgen del Camino
73%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
55%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
22%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
75%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
40%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
16%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
64%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
27%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
62%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mirandés II scores more
45%
level
27%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
28%

Mirandés II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Mirandés II 1–1 La Virgen del Camino

Mirandés II and La Virgen del Camino drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.