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Mirandés II vs Guijuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guijuelo
Guijuelo
11/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mirandés II34%
×Draw28%
Guijuelo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.14
Guijuelo
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 35 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Guijuelo
1.43

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Guijuelo
0.94

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Guijuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
62%
Mirandés II or Guijuelo
72%
Draw or Guijuelo
66%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
14%
Guijuelo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
68%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
32%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
11%
Guijuelo 1+ goals
70%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
34%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
48%
Guijuelo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Guijuelo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mirandés II scores more
34%
level
28%
Guijuelo scores more
38%

Guijuelo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs Guijuelo

Mirandés II and Guijuelo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.