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Mirandés II vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Mirandés II39%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.21
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

Mirandés II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
67%
Mirandés II or Cultural Leonesa II
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
61%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
17%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
70%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
34%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
12%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
66%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
29%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
54%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mirandés II scores more
39%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
33%

Mirandés II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs Cultural Leonesa II

Mirandés II and Cultural Leonesa II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.