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Mirandés II vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 19Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mirandés II53%
×Draw25%
Cultural Cebrereña22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.61
Cultural Cebrereña
0.94

Mirandés II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Cultural Cebrereña
0.88

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Cultural Cebrereña
1.88

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
78%
Mirandés II or Cultural Cebrereña
75%
Draw or Cultural Cebrereña
47%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
28%
Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
80%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
48%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
22%
Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
61%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
24%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
71%
Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mirandés II scores more
53%
level
25%
Cultural Cebrereña scores more
22%

Mirandés II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mirandés II 3 – 0 Cultural Cebrereña

Mirandés II beat Cultural Cebrereña 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.