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Mirandés II vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bupolsa
Bupolsa
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mirandés II47%
×Draw28%
Bupolsa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.35
Bupolsa
0.90

Mirandés II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Bupolsa
0.81

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Bupolsa
1.35

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Bupolsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
75%
Mirandés II or Bupolsa
72%
Draw or Bupolsa
53%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
22%
Bupolsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
74%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
39%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
15%
Bupolsa 1+ goals
59%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
23%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
65%
Bupolsa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mirandés II scores more
47%
level
28%
Bupolsa scores more
25%

Mirandés II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Mirandés II 0–2 Bupolsa

Bupolsa beat Mirandés II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.