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Mirandés II vs Briviesca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Briviesca
Briviesca
9/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mirandés II60%
×Draw24%
Briviesca16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.70
Briviesca
0.74

Mirandés II creates 130% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Briviesca
0.50

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Briviesca
2.06

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Briviesca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Briviesca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
84%
Mirandés II or Briviesca
76%
Draw or Briviesca
40%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
34%
Briviesca wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
82%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
51%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
24%
Briviesca 1+ goals
52%
Briviesca 2+ goals
17%
Briviesca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
79%
Briviesca (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Briviesca away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Briviesca defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.70

Briviesca attack 0.50 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mirandés II scores more
60%
level
24%
Briviesca scores more
16%

Mirandés II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandés II vs Briviesca

Mirandés II beat Briviesca 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.