Mirandés II vs Almazán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 111+ matches
Mirandés II45%
Almazán27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mirandés II creates 37% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 113 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mirandés II ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches
Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34
Almazán attack 0.97 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Mirandés II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Mirandés II substitutes
Head to Head
Atlético Tordesillas
Guijuelo
Cristo Atlético
Palencia CF
UD Santa Marta
Atlético MansillésAlmazánMirandés II
La Virgen del Camino
Cultural Leonesa II
Villaralbo
Arandina
Colegios Diocesanos
Bembibre
Unionistas II
Mojados
Becerril Campos
Numancia IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Mirandés II host Almazán on Saturday, 29 March 2025 at 16:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019/2020 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Mirandés II 1–0 Almazán
Mirandés II beat Almazán 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 29, 2025.
Goals: Asier (87' pen).
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.