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Mirandela vs Fafe — Taça de Portugal 2018

Mirandela
Mirandela
FT
0 – 1
Fafe
Fafe
9/11/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio São Sebastião

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mirandela16%
×Draw27%
Fafe57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandela
0.63
Fafe
1.44

Fafe creates 129% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mirandela
1.00
Fafe
1.63

allows per match

Mirandela
1.25
Fafe
0.25

finishing

Mirandela+0.00on par
Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandela ↓

Fafe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mirandela or draw
43%
Mirandela or Fafe
73%
Draw or Fafe
84%

Winning margin

Mirandela wins by 2+
4%
Fafe wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Mirandela 1+ goals
47%
Mirandela 2+ goals
13%
Mirandela 3+ goals
3%
Fafe 1+ goals
76%
Fafe 2+ goals
42%
Fafe 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mirandela (draw refunded)
22%
Fafe (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandela at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandela attack 1.00 + Fafe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Fafe attack 1.63 + Mirandela defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mirandela scores more
16%
level
27%
Fafe scores more
57%

Fafe at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirandela vs Fafe

Fafe beat Mirandela 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio São Sebastião in Mirandela.