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MiPK vs LPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

MiPK
MiPK
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LPS
LPS
5/10/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 3Hänninkenttä (Mikkeli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

MiPK60%
×Draw18%
LPS22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MiPK
2.67
LPS
1.59

MiPK creates 68% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

MiPK
1.52
LPS
1.45

allows per match

MiPK
1.73
LPS
3.82

finishing

MiPK+0.00on par
LPS+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MiPK ↓

LPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

MiPK or draw
78%
MiPK or LPS
82%
Draw or LPS
40%

Winning margin

MiPK wins by 2+
40%
LPS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

MiPK 1+ goals
93%
MiPK 2+ goals
74%
MiPK 3+ goals
49%
LPS 1+ goals
80%
LPS 2+ goals
47%
LPS 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

MiPK (draw refunded)
73%
LPS (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MiPK at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

LPS away — creates 1.45, concedes 3.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MiPK attack 1.52 + LPS defence 3.82 → ÷2 → 2.67

LPS attack 1.45 + MiPK defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

MiPK scores more
60%
level
18%
LPS scores more
22%

MiPK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "MiPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MiPK 3 – 0 LPS

MiPK beat LPS 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Hänninkenttä (Mikkeli).