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Minyor Radnevo vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
CANC
00:00
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
5/2/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 29Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minyor Radnevo61%
×Draw23%
Yambol 191516%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minyor Radnevo
1.75
Yambol 1915
0.76

Minyor Radnevo creates 130% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 118 away

creates per match

Minyor Radnevo
1.85
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Minyor Radnevo
0.44
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minyor Radnevo ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Minyor Radnevo or draw
84%
Minyor Radnevo or Yambol 1915
77%
Draw or Yambol 1915
39%

Winning margin

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
35%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
83%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
52%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
25%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
53%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
18%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
79%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minyor Radnevo at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.85 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Minyor Radnevo defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Minyor Radnevo scores more
61%
level
23%
Yambol 1915 scores more
16%

Minyor Radnevo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Minyor Radnevo host Yambol 1915

May 2, 2020: Minyor Radnevo take on Yambol 1915 in Third League - Southeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Minyor Radnevo host Yambol 1915 at Stadion Minyor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.