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Minyor Radnevo vs Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
FT
3 – 0
Haskovo
Haskovo
4/16/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 27Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minyor Radnevo63%
×Draw23%
Haskovo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minyor Radnevo
1.74
Haskovo
0.66

Minyor Radnevo creates 164% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 47 away

creates per match

Minyor Radnevo
1.85
Haskovo
0.87

allows per match

Minyor Radnevo
0.44
Haskovo
1.62

finishing

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par
Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minyor Radnevo ↓

Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Minyor Radnevo or draw
86%
Minyor Radnevo or Haskovo
77%
Draw or Haskovo
37%

Winning margin

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
37%
Haskovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
82%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
52%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
25%
Haskovo 1+ goals
48%
Haskovo 2+ goals
14%
Haskovo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
82%
Haskovo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minyor Radnevo at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.85 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Minyor Radnevo defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Minyor Radnevo scores more
63%
level
23%
Haskovo scores more
14%

Minyor Radnevo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minyor Radnevo vs Haskovo

Minyor Radnevo beat Haskovo 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Radnevo.