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Minyor Radnevo vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
CANC
00:00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
3/7/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 20Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minyor Radnevo43%
×Draw27%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minyor Radnevo
1.40
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.13

Minyor Radnevo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 99 away

creates per match

Minyor Radnevo
1.85
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.82

allows per match

Minyor Radnevo
0.44
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.95

finishing

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minyor Radnevo ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Minyor Radnevo or draw
70%
Minyor Radnevo or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
73%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
57%

Winning margin

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
20%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
75%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
41%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
17%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
68%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
31%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
59%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minyor Radnevo at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.85 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + Minyor Radnevo defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Minyor Radnevo scores more
43%
level
27%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
30%

Minyor Radnevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minyor Radnevo vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Match Preview

Minyor Radnevo face Chernomorets 1919 Burgas on March 7, 2020 in this Third League - Southeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Minyor Radnevo host Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at Stadion Minyor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.