Minsk W 3–0 Rīgas FS W: Result & Stats

Minsk W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rīgas FS W

11/4/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · R60310Stadion FK Minsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Minsk W80%

×Draw11%

Rīgas FS W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minsk WExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

1.11

Minsk W

3.50

Rīgas FS W

1.11

Minsk W creates 215% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.40

1.83

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Minsk W

2.00

Rīgas FS W

0.40

allows per match

Minsk W

1.83

Rīgas FS W

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minsk W+0.00on par

Rīgas FS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minsk W ↓

Rīgas FS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Minsk W or draw

92%

Minsk W or Rīgas FS W

89%

Draw or Rīgas FS W

20%

Winning margin

Minsk W wins by 2+

63%

Rīgas FS W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Minsk W 1+ goals

97%

Minsk W 2+ goals

85%

Minsk W 3+ goals

66%

Rīgas FS W 1+ goals

67%

Rīgas FS W 2+ goals

30%

Rīgas FS W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Minsk W (draw refunded)

91%

Rīgas FS W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minsk W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Rīgas FS W away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minsk W attack 2.00 + Rīgas FS W defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Rīgas FS W attack 0.40 + Minsk W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Minsk W scores more

80%

level

11%

Rīgas FS W scores more

8%

Minsk W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Minsk W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff