Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Minsk W vs Breidablik W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Minsk W
Minsk W
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 4
Breidablik W
Breidablik Wadvanced
9/4/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsKópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Minsk W38%
×Draw21%
Breidablik W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minsk W
1.91
Breidablik W
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Minsk W
2.00
Breidablik W
2.18

allows per match

Minsk W
1.83
Breidablik W
1.82

finishing

Minsk W+0.00on par
Breidablik W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minsk W ↓

Breidablik W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Minsk W or draw
59%
Minsk W or Breidablik W
79%
Draw or Breidablik W
62%

Winning margin

Minsk W wins by 2+
20%
Breidablik W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Minsk W 1+ goals
85%
Minsk W 2+ goals
57%
Minsk W 3+ goals
30%
Breidablik W 1+ goals
86%
Breidablik W 2+ goals
59%
Breidablik W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Minsk W (draw refunded)
48%
Breidablik W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minsk W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Breidablik W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minsk W attack 2.00 + Breidablik W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Breidablik W attack 2.18 + Minsk W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minsk W scores more
38%
level
21%
Breidablik W scores more
41%

Breidablik W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Breidablik W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Minsk W 1–6 Breidablik W

Breidablik W beat Minsk W 6-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kópavogsvöllur in Kópavogur.