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Minsk W vs Austria Wien W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Minsk W
Minsk W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Austria Wien W
Austria Wien W
8/30/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd Qualifying Round - FinalsGenerali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Minsk W22%
×Draw24%
Austria Wien W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minsk W
1.00
Austria Wien W
1.75

Austria Wien W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Minsk W
2.00
Austria Wien W
1.67

allows per match

Minsk W
1.83
Austria Wien W
0.00

finishing

Minsk W+0.00on par
Austria Wien W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minsk W ↓

Austria Wien W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Minsk W or draw
45%
Minsk W or Austria Wien W
76%
Draw or Austria Wien W
78%

Winning margin

Minsk W wins by 2+
8%
Austria Wien W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Minsk W 1+ goals
63%
Minsk W 2+ goals
26%
Minsk W 3+ goals
8%
Austria Wien W 1+ goals
83%
Austria Wien W 2+ goals
52%
Austria Wien W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Minsk W (draw refunded)
28%
Austria Wien W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minsk W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Austria Wien W away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minsk W attack 2.00 + Austria Wien W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Austria Wien W attack 1.67 + Minsk W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Minsk W scores more
22%
level
24%
Austria Wien W scores more
55%

Austria Wien W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Austria Wien W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Minsk W 0–3 Austria Wien W

Austria Wien W beat Minsk W 3-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Generali Arena in Vienna.