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Aarhus Fremad vs Dalum — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
1 – 2
Dalum
Dalum
8/4/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 1Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Aarhus Fremad51%
×Draw24%
Dalum26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
1.75
Dalum
1.17

Aarhus Fremad creates 50% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 22 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.99
Dalum
1.23

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.10
Dalum
1.50

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Dalum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
74%
Aarhus Fremad or Dalum
76%
Draw or Dalum
49%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
28%
Dalum wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
83%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
52%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
25%
Dalum 1+ goals
69%
Dalum 2+ goals
33%
Dalum 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
67%
Dalum (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.10 · 81 matches

Dalum away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.99 + Dalum defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dalum attack 1.23 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
51%
level
24%
Dalum scores more
26%

Aarhus Fremad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Aarhus Fremad 1–2 Dalum

Dalum beat Aarhus Fremad 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.