Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dalum vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Dalum
Dalum
FT
1 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
4/5/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Dalum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dalum26%
×Draw25%
Aarhus Fremad50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalum
1.10
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

Aarhus Fremad creates 48% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 81 away

creates per match

Dalum
1.05
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

Dalum
1.62
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Dalum+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalum ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dalum or draw
50%
Dalum or Aarhus Fremad
75%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
74%

Winning margin

Dalum wins by 2+
10%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dalum 1+ goals
67%
Dalum 2+ goals
30%
Dalum 3+ goals
10%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
80%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
48%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dalum (draw refunded)
34%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalum at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalum attack 1.05 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Dalum defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dalum scores more
26%
level
25%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
50%

Aarhus Fremad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalum vs Aarhus Fremad

Dalum and Aarhus Fremad drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Dalum Stadion in Odense.