Minnesota United FC 2–0 Los Angeles FC

Minnesota United FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Los Angeles FC

3/17/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 6Allianz Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Minnesota United FC42%

×Draw25%

Los Angeles FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minnesota United FCExpected goals in this matchLos Angeles FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.35

Minnesota United FC

1.54

Los Angeles FC

1.35

Minnesota United FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.75

creates per match

1.57

1.14

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Minnesota United FC

1.75

Los Angeles FC

1.57

allows per match

Minnesota United FC

1.14

Los Angeles FC

1.34

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Minnesota United FC-0.25scores less

Los Angeles FC+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minnesota United FC ↓

Los Angeles FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Minnesota United FC or draw

67%

Minnesota United FC or Los Angeles FC

75%

Draw or Los Angeles FC

58%

Winning margin

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

21%

Los Angeles FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

79%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

45%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

20%

Los Angeles FC 1+ goals

74%

Los Angeles FC 2+ goals

39%

Los Angeles FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

56%

Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minnesota United FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.14 · 20 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minnesota United FC attack 1.75 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Los Angeles FC attack 1.57 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Minnesota United FC scores more

42%

level

25%

Los Angeles FC scores more

33%

Minnesota United FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Minnesota United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff