Minnesota United FC 1–1 Columbus Crew

Minnesota United FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Columbus Crew

3/2/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 3Allianz Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Minnesota United FC47%

×Draw25%

Columbus Crew29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minnesota United FCExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.21

Minnesota United FC

1.61

Columbus Crew

1.21

Minnesota United FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 27 away

1.82

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Minnesota United FC

1.82

Columbus Crew

1.26

allows per match

Minnesota United FC

1.15

Columbus Crew

1.40

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Minnesota United FC-0.34scores less

Columbus Crew+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minnesota United FC ↓

Columbus Crew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Minnesota United FC or draw

71%

Minnesota United FC or Columbus Crew

75%

Draw or Columbus Crew

53%

Winning margin

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

24%

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

80%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

48%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

22%

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

70%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

34%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

62%

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minnesota United FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.15 · 21 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.40 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minnesota United FC attack 1.82 + Columbus Crew defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Columbus Crew attack 1.26 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Minnesota United FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Columbus Crew scores more

29%

Minnesota United FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Minnesota United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff