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Minnesota United FC vs Austin — Major League Soccer 2026

Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Austin
Austin
5/25/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 15Allianz Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Minnesota United FC59%
×Draw22%
Austin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minnesota United FC
1.94
Austin
1.00

Minnesota United FC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Minnesota United FC
1.82
Austin
0.86

allows per match

Minnesota United FC
1.15
Austin
2.07

finishing

Minnesota United FC-0.34scores less
Austin+0.25scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minnesota United FC ↓

Austin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Minnesota United FC or draw
81%
Minnesota United FC or Austin
78%
Draw or Austin
41%

Winning margin

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+
35%
Austin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals
86%
Minnesota United FC 2+ goals
58%
Minnesota United FC 3+ goals
30%
Austin 1+ goals
63%
Austin 2+ goals
26%
Austin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)
76%
Austin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minnesota United FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.15 · 21 matches

Austin away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minnesota United FC attack 1.82 + Austin defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Austin attack 0.86 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Minnesota United FC scores more
59%
level
22%
Austin scores more
19%

Minnesota United FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Minnesota United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Minnesota United FC 1–1 Austin

Minnesota United FC and Austin drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Allianz Field in Saint Paul.