Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Montedio Yamagata vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
R. Matsuoka 77'
Y. Suzuki 48'
T. Sakano 61'
G. Omotehara 35'
10/8/2016J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendō (Tendo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Montedio Yamagata50%
×Draw25%
Ehime FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montedio Yamagata
1.58
Ehime FC
1.02

Montedio Yamagata creates 55% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 116 away

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.55
Ehime FC
1.03

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.02
Ehime FC
1.61

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw
76%
Montedio Yamagata or Ehime FC
75%
Draw or Ehime FC
50%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
26%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
79%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
47%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
21%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
64%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
27%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
67%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 162 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.55 + Ehime FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ehime FC attack 1.03 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more
50%
level
25%
Ehime FC scores more
24%

Montedio Yamagata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
G. Omotehara
48'
Y. Suzuki
56'
T. Takagi← N. Kuriyama
59'
T. Kondo← G. Omotehara
61'
T. Sakano
77'
S. Ito← R. Matsuoka
77'
R. Matsuoka
79'
G. Nishida← T. Sakano
84'
K. Yasuda← Y. Senuma
87'
A. Nagato← R. Hayashi

Montedio Yamagata 2 – 2 Ehime FC

Montedio Yamagata and Ehime FC drew 2-2 in J2 League on October 8, 2016.

Goals: G. Omotehara (35'), Y. Suzuki (48'), T. Sakano (61'), R. Matsuoka (77').

The match was played at ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendō (Tendo)).