Ehime FC 1–3 Montedio Yamagata: Result & Stats

Ehime FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Montedio Yamagata

T. Ishiura 90'

K. Nishimura 82'

A. S. Disaro 73', 16'

7/6/2025

J2 League · Round 22Ningineer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Ehime FC28%

×Draw27%

Montedio Yamagata45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ehime FCExpected goals in this matchMontedio Yamagata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.39

Ehime FC

1.03

Montedio Yamagata

1.39

Montedio Yamagata creates 35% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 166 away

0.93

creates per match

1.25

1.52

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ehime FC

0.93

Montedio Yamagata

1.25

allows per match

Ehime FC

1.52

Montedio Yamagata

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Montedio Yamagata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw

55%

Ehime FC or Montedio Yamagata

73%

Draw or Montedio Yamagata

72%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+

10%

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals

64%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

28%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

9%

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals

75%

Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals

40%

Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

38%

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.93 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.25 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ehime FC scores more

28%

level

27%

Montedio Yamagata scores more

45%

Montedio Yamagata at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. S. Disaro↳ A. Kawai

28'

Y. Murakami← R. Sato

46'

S. Tanimoto← K. Yamahara

47'

Y. Murakami

67'

T. Ishiura← H. Koda

67'

B. Duncan← Y. Taguchi

69'

J. Takahashi← S. Kokubu

73'

A. S. Disaro↳ R. Nakamura

82'

K. Nishimura↳ L. Takae

83'

R. Tsuruno← R. Kubota

83'

Z. Issaka← K. Sakamoto

83'

S. Horikane← A. S. Disaro

85'

K. Hosoya

90+4'

K. Nishimura

90+1'

Y. Konishi← L. Takae

90+1'

S. Doi← R. Kida

90'

T. Ishiura

Ehime

Montedio

1

Heward-Be

15

A

Kawai

2

Yoshida

25

▼

Kokubu

4

⚽

Nishimura

5

Abe

7

A

▼

Takae

71

A

Nakamura

90

⚽2

▼

Disaro

10

▼

Kida

14

▼

Sakamoto

31

Shirasaka

37

Ishio

13

▼

Kubota

4

▼

16

19

8

6

10

▼

Sato

18

▼

Taguchi

24

▼

Koda

Manager: Shinya Aono

28'▲Y. Murakami←▼R. Sato

46'▲S. Tanimoto←▼K. Yamahara

67'▲T. Ishiura←▼H. Koda

67'▲B. Duncan←▼Y. Taguchi

83'▲R. Tsuruno←▼R. Kubota

Ehime FC substitutes

1Tokushige3Scalese44Moriyama5Ishiura7Soneda14Tanimoto9Duncan15Tsuruno17Murakami

Manager: Akinobu Yokouchi

69'▲J. Takahashi←▼S. Kokubu

83'▲Z. Issaka←▼K. Sakamoto

83'▲S. Horikane←▼A. S. Disaro

90+1'▲Y. Konishi←▼L. Takae

90+1'▲S. Doi←▼R. Kida

Montedio Yamagata substitutes

16Hasegawa13Nodake22Shirowa8Konishi42Issaka88Doi9Takahashi11Fujimoto55Horikane