Salernitana 1–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Salernitana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cesena

J. Minala 22'

A. Cocco 27'

2/18/2017

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Arechi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Salernitana48%

×Draw26%

Cesena27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalernitanaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.06

Salernitana

1.51

Cesena

1.06

Salernitana creates 42% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 47 away

1.49

creates per match

1.02

1.10

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Salernitana

1.49

Cesena

1.02

allows per match

Salernitana

1.10

Cesena

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salernitana+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salernitana ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Salernitana or draw

73%

Salernitana or Cesena

74%

Draw or Cesena

52%

Winning margin

Salernitana wins by 2+

24%

Cesena wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salernitana 1+ goals

78%

Salernitana 2+ goals

44%

Salernitana 3+ goals

19%

Cesena 1+ goals

65%

Cesena 2+ goals

29%

Cesena 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Salernitana (draw refunded)

64%

Cesena (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salernitana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salernitana attack 1.49 + Cesena defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cesena attack 1.02 + Salernitana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Salernitana scores more

48%

level

26%

Cesena scores more

27%

Salernitana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Salernitana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

27'

31'

33'

34'

42'

45'

57'

61'

A. Donnarumma← A. Rosina

69'

Moussa Koné

71'

M. Vitale← M. Crimi

79'

K. Laribi← L. Garritano

81'

Riccardo Improta

86'

M. Sprocati← R. Improta

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SalernitanaCesena

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots8

2Corners6

14Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots8

4On Target5

9Off Target3

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls19

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2