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Minneapolis City vs Thunder Bay Chill — USL League Two 2018

Minneapolis City
Minneapolis City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
6/6/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 7Edor Nelson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Minneapolis City41%
×Draw24%
Thunder Bay Chill35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minneapolis City
1.66
Thunder Bay Chill
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

creates per match

Minneapolis City
2.13
Thunder Bay Chill
1.71

allows per match

Minneapolis City
1.34
Thunder Bay Chill
1.19

finishing

Minneapolis City+0.00on par
Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minneapolis City ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Minneapolis City or draw
65%
Minneapolis City or Thunder Bay Chill
76%
Draw or Thunder Bay Chill
59%

Winning margin

Minneapolis City wins by 2+
21%
Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Minneapolis City 1+ goals
81%
Minneapolis City 2+ goals
49%
Minneapolis City 3+ goals
23%
Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
78%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
45%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Minneapolis City (draw refunded)
54%
Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minneapolis City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minneapolis City attack 2.13 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.66

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + Minneapolis City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minneapolis City scores more
41%
level
24%
Thunder Bay Chill scores more
35%

Minneapolis City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Minneapolis City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Minneapolis City 1–0 Thunder Bay Chill

Minneapolis City beat Thunder Bay Chill 1-0 in USL League Two on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Edor Nelson Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.