Minija 1–1 Trakai II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Minija

FT

1 – 1

Trakai II

5/2/2021

1 Lyga · Round 2Kretingos miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Minija42%

×Draw24%

Trakai II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinijaExpected goals in this matchTrakai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.41

Minija

1.61

Trakai II

1.41

Minija creates 14% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 66 away

1.46

creates per match

1.52

1.30

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Minija

1.46

Trakai II

1.52

allows per match

Minija

1.30

Trakai II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minija+0.00on par

Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Trakai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Minija or draw

66%

Minija or Trakai II

76%

Draw or Trakai II

58%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+

21%

Trakai II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals

80%

Minija 2+ goals

48%

Minija 3+ goals

22%

Trakai II 1+ goals

76%

Trakai II 2+ goals

41%

Trakai II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)

56%

Trakai II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 104 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.46 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Minija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Minija scores more

42%

level

24%

Trakai II scores more

34%

Minija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff