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Minija vs Šilas — 1 Lyga 2026

Minija
Minija
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Šilas
Šilas
7/1/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 15Kretingos miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Minija40%
×Draw24%
Šilas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minija
1.57
Šilas
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 41 away

creates per match

Minija
1.46
Šilas
1.63

allows per match

Minija
1.30
Šilas
1.68

finishing

Minija+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Minija or draw
64%
Minija or Šilas
76%
Draw or Šilas
60%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+
20%
Šilas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals
79%
Minija 2+ goals
46%
Minija 3+ goals
21%
Šilas 1+ goals
77%
Šilas 2+ goals
43%
Šilas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)
53%
Šilas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 104 matches

Šilas away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.46 + Šilas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Šilas attack 1.63 + Minija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Minija scores more
40%
level
24%
Šilas scores more
36%

Minija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minija vs Šilas

Minija beat Šilas 3-2 in 1 Lyga on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kretingos miesto stadionas in Kretinga.