Minija 0–4 Neptūną Klaipėda: Result & Stats

Minija

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Neptūną Klaipėda

D. Zubauskas 63'

T. Hevlych 43'

O. Badmus 11'

M. Rusys 4'

3/15/2025

1 Lyga · Round 2Kretinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Minija34%

×Draw24%

Neptūną Klaipėda42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinijaExpected goals in this matchNeptūną Klaipėda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.67

Minija

1.47

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.67

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 14% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 79 away

1.47

creates per match

2.05

1.30

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Minija

1.47

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.05

allows per match

Minija

1.30

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minija+0.00on par

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Minija or draw

58%

Minija or Neptūną Klaipėda

76%

Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda

66%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+

16%

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals

77%

Minija 2+ goals

43%

Minija 3+ goals

18%

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals

81%

Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals

50%

Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)

44%

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.47 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Minija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Minija scores more

34%

level

24%

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more

42%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

11'

14'

29'

29'

43'

45+2'

46'

I. Dumbuya← J. Jankauskas

46'

V. Kazlauskas← M. Velyvis

46'

E. Smulkys← A. Kurakinas

59'

A. Putvinas← O. Lubys

59'

Elivelton← T. Hevlych

60'

V. Kazlauskas

63'

D. Zubauskas

69'

Saimon← D. Zubauskas

69'

A. Ankudinovas← K. Shults

77'

M. Maiga← J. Kasparavicius

77'

J. Vaitkus← S. Herman

Minija

Neptūną

1

Agalarov

3

⚽

Badmus

8

⚽

▼

Hevlych

9

⚽

Rusys

11

⚽

▼

17

19

23

24

▼

Shults

34

▼

Kurakinas

74

▼

Herman

1

Tek

20

▼

15

5

12

6

25

▼

Gunji

7

▼

Kasparavi

9

▼

Velyvis

10

Bamba

23

▼

Jankauska

Manager: André Marques

14'▲M. Keblys←▼K. Gunji

46'▲I. Dumbuya←▼J. Jankauskas

46'▲V. Kazlauskas←▼M. Velyvis

59'▲A. Putvinas←▼O. Lubys

77'▲M. Maiga←▼J. Kasparavicius

Minija substitutes

2Drazdas3Jakumas4Martinkus8Pipiras11Putvinas16Maiga18Dumbuya19Keblys21Kazlauskas27Romba

Manager: O. Lutkov

46'▲E. Smulkys←▼A. Kurakinas

59'▲Elivelton←▼T. Hevlych

69'▲Saimon←▼D. Zubauskas

69'▲A. Ankudinovas←▼K. Shults

77'▲J. Vaitkus←▼S. Herman

Neptūną Klaipėda substitutes

89Komza31Trefilov7Smulkys10Diawara21Saimon33Ankudinovas39Stonys69Omokhoa94Paulius95Elivelton42Vaitkus