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Minija vs Banga — 1 Lyga 2026

Minija
Minija
FT
1 – 2
Banga
Banga
5/15/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Kretingos miesto stadionas (Kretinga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Minija28%
×Draw24%
Banga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minija
1.21
Banga
1.64

Banga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

creates per match

Minija
1.43
Banga
1.94

allows per match

Minija
1.34
Banga
1.00

finishing

Minija+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Minija or draw
53%
Minija or Banga
76%
Draw or Banga
72%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+
12%
Banga wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals
70%
Minija 2+ goals
34%
Minija 3+ goals
12%
Banga 1+ goals
81%
Banga 2+ goals
49%
Banga 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)
37%
Banga (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.34 · 105 matches

Banga away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.43 + Banga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Banga attack 1.94 + Minija defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Minija scores more
28%
level
24%
Banga scores more
47%

Banga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minija 1 – 2 Banga

Banga beat Minija 2-1 in 1 Lyga on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Kretingos miesto stadionas (Kretinga).