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Minière Lasauvage vs Mondercange — Cup 2020

Minière Lasauvage
Minière Lasauvage
AET
3 – 8
HT: 0 – 0
Mondercange
Mondercange
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundStade des Mineurs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Minière Lasauvage4%
×Draw7%
Mondercange89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minière Lasauvage
0.79
Mondercange
3.96

Mondercange creates 401% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Minière Lasauvage
0.75
Mondercange
5.17

allows per match

Minière Lasauvage
2.75
Mondercange
0.83

finishing

Minière Lasauvage+0.00on par
Mondercange+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minière Lasauvage ↓

Mondercange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Minière Lasauvage or draw
11%
Minière Lasauvage or Mondercange
93%
Draw or Mondercange
96%

Winning margin

Minière Lasauvage wins by 2+
1%
Mondercange wins by 2+
75%

Team goals

Minière Lasauvage 1+ goals
55%
Minière Lasauvage 2+ goals
19%
Minière Lasauvage 3+ goals
5%
Mondercange 1+ goals
98%
Mondercange 2+ goals
89%
Mondercange 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Minière Lasauvage (draw refunded)
4%
Mondercange (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minière Lasauvage at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Mondercange away — creates 5.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minière Lasauvage attack 0.75 + Mondercange defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Mondercange attack 5.17 + Minière Lasauvage defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Minière Lasauvage scores more
4%
level
7%
Mondercange scores more
89%

Mondercange at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Mondercange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Minière Lasauvage 3–8 Mondercange

Mondercange beat Minière Lasauvage 8-3 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Mineurs in Lasauvage.