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Minière Lasauvage vs Feulen — Cup 2020

Minière Lasauvage
Minière Lasauvage
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Feulen
Feulenadvanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Minière Lasauvage14%
×Draw15%
Feulen71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minière Lasauvage
1.27
Feulen
2.98

Feulen creates 135% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Minière Lasauvage
0.75
Feulen
3.20

allows per match

Minière Lasauvage
2.75
Feulen
1.80

finishing

Minière Lasauvage+0.00on par
Feulen+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minière Lasauvage ↓

Feulen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Minière Lasauvage or draw
29%
Minière Lasauvage or Feulen
85%
Draw or Feulen
86%

Winning margin

Minière Lasauvage wins by 2+
5%
Feulen wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Minière Lasauvage 1+ goals
72%
Minière Lasauvage 2+ goals
36%
Minière Lasauvage 3+ goals
14%
Feulen 1+ goals
95%
Feulen 2+ goals
79%
Feulen 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Minière Lasauvage (draw refunded)
16%
Feulen (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minière Lasauvage at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Feulen away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minière Lasauvage attack 0.75 + Feulen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Feulen attack 3.20 + Minière Lasauvage defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Minière Lasauvage scores more
14%
level
15%
Feulen scores more
71%

Feulen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Feulen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Minière Lasauvage vs Feulen

Feulen beat Minière Lasauvage 4-2 in Cup on September 21, 2025.