Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ming Chuan University vs NTUPES — Taiwan Football Premier League 2019

Ming Chuan University
Ming Chuan University
FT
2 – 3
NTUPES
NTUPES
9/15/2019Taiwan Football Premier LeagueTaiwan Football Premier League · Round 7Taipei Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ming Chuan University43%
×Draw22%
NTUPES35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ming Chuan University
1.92
NTUPES
1.71

Ming Chuan University creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ming Chuan University
1.06
NTUPES
0.90

allows per match

Ming Chuan University
2.53
NTUPES
2.77

finishing

Ming Chuan University+0.00on par
NTUPES+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ming Chuan University ↓

NTUPES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ming Chuan University or draw
65%
Ming Chuan University or NTUPES
78%
Draw or NTUPES
57%

Winning margin

Ming Chuan University wins by 2+
24%
NTUPES wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ming Chuan University 1+ goals
85%
Ming Chuan University 2+ goals
57%
Ming Chuan University 3+ goals
30%
NTUPES 1+ goals
82%
NTUPES 2+ goals
51%
NTUPES 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ming Chuan University (draw refunded)
55%
NTUPES (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ming Chuan University at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.53 · 62 matches

NTUPES away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ming Chuan University attack 1.06 + NTUPES defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.92

NTUPES attack 0.90 + Ming Chuan University defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ming Chuan University scores more
43%
level
22%
NTUPES scores more
35%

Ming Chuan University at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ming Chuan University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taiwan Football Premier League: Ming Chuan University 2–3 NTUPES

NTUPES beat Ming Chuan University 3-2 in Taiwan Football Premier League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Taipei Municipal Stadium in Taipei.