Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mingəçevir vs Şamaxı FK — Birinci Dasta 2019

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
2/8/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 13Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mingəçevir23%
×Draw24%
Şamaxı FK53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mingəçevir
1.02
Şamaxı FK
1.71

Şamaxı FK creates 68% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mingəçevir
1.33
Şamaxı FK
2.21

allows per match

Mingəçevir
1.22
Şamaxı FK
0.71

finishing

Mingəçevir+0.00on par
Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mingəçevir ↓

Şamaxı FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mingəçevir or draw
47%
Mingəçevir or Şamaxı FK
76%
Draw or Şamaxı FK
77%

Winning margin

Mingəçevir wins by 2+
8%
Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Mingəçevir 1+ goals
64%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
27%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
8%
Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
82%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
51%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
30%
Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mingəçevir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mingəçevir attack 1.33 + Şamaxı FK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Şamaxı FK attack 2.21 + Mingəçevir defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mingəçevir scores more
23%
level
24%
Şamaxı FK scores more
53%

Şamaxı FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mingəçevir vs Şamaxı FK

Şamaxı FK beat Mingəçevir 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on February 8, 2024.

The match was played at Yaşar Məmmədzadə adına şəhər stadionu in Mingəçevir.