Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mingəçevir vs Karvan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karvan
Karvan
5/22/2025Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 27Mingəçevir şəhər stadionu ehtiyat meydança

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mingəçevir35%
×Draw24%
Karvan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mingəçevir
1.42
Karvan
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

creates per match

Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.88

allows per match

Mingəçevir
1.22
Karvan
1.50

finishing

Mingəçevir+0.00on par
Karvan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mingəçevir ↓

Karvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mingəçevir or draw
59%
Mingəçevir or Karvan
76%
Draw or Karvan
65%

Winning margin

Mingəçevir wins by 2+
16%
Karvan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Mingəçevir 1+ goals
76%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
41%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
17%
Karvan 1+ goals
79%
Karvan 2+ goals
46%
Karvan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
46%
Karvan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mingəçevir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Karvan away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mingəçevir attack 1.33 + Karvan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Karvan attack 1.88 + Mingəçevir defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mingəçevir scores more
35%
level
24%
Karvan scores more
41%

Karvan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Mingəçevir 2–1 Karvan

Mingəçevir beat Karvan 2-1 in Birinci Dasta on May 22, 2025.

The match was played at Mingəçevir şəhər stadionu ehtiyat meydança in Mingəçevir.