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Mingəçevir vs Difai Ağsu — Birinci Dasta 2019

Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
4/16/2026Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mingəçevir48%
×Draw24%
Difai Ağsu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mingəçevir
1.66
Difai Ağsu
1.19

Mingəçevir creates 39% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 40 away

creates per match

Mingəçevir
1.33
Difai Ağsu
1.15

allows per match

Mingəçevir
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.98

finishing

Mingəçevir+0.00on par
Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mingəçevir ↓

Difai Ağsu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mingəçevir or draw
73%
Mingəçevir or Difai Ağsu
76%
Draw or Difai Ağsu
52%

Winning margin

Mingəçevir wins by 2+
25%
Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mingəçevir 1+ goals
81%
Mingəçevir 2+ goals
49%
Mingəçevir 3+ goals
23%
Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
70%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
33%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mingəçevir (draw refunded)
64%
Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mingəçevir at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mingəçevir attack 1.33 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.66

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + Mingəçevir defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mingəçevir scores more
48%
level
24%
Difai Ağsu scores more
27%

Mingəçevir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mingəçevir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Mingəçevir 2–1 Difai Ağsu

Mingəçevir beat Difai Ağsu 2-1 in Birinci Dasta on April 16, 2026.