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Minervén vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Minervén
Minervén
CANC
00:00
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
3/29/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 7CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén19%
×Draw21%
Libertador FC59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minervén
1.04
Libertador FC
1.99

Libertador FC creates 91% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 45 away

creates per match

Minervén
0.75
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Minervén
3.25
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Minervén or draw
41%
Minervén or Libertador FC
79%
Draw or Libertador FC
81%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+
7%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals
65%
Minervén 2+ goals
28%
Minervén 3+ goals
9%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
86%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
59%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)
25%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Minervén scores more
19%
level
21%
Libertador FC scores more
59%

Libertador FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minervén face Libertador FC (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Minervén hosting Libertador FC. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Minervén host Libertador FC at CTE Cachamay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.