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Minervén vs Fundacion AIFI — Segunda División 2018

Minervén
Minervén
CANC
00:00
Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
3/28/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén21%
×Draw21%
Fundacion AIFI57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minervén
1.17
Fundacion AIFI
2.05

Fundacion AIFI creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 66 away

creates per match

Minervén
0.75
Fundacion AIFI
0.85

allows per match

Minervén
3.25
Fundacion AIFI
1.59

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par
Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Fundacion AIFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Minervén or draw
43%
Minervén or Fundacion AIFI
79%
Draw or Fundacion AIFI
79%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+
8%
Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals
69%
Minervén 2+ goals
33%
Minervén 3+ goals
11%
Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
87%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
61%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)
27%
Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Minervén scores more
21%
level
21%
Fundacion AIFI scores more
57%

Fundacion AIFI at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Minervén host Fundacion AIFI

March 28, 2020: Minervén take on Fundacion AIFI in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.