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Minervén vs Diamantes de Guayana — Segunda División 2018

Minervén
Minervén
CANC
00:00
Diamantes de Guayana
Diamantes de Guayana
4/8/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén18%
×Draw20%
Diamantes de Guayana62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minervén
1.06
Diamantes de Guayana
2.17

Diamantes de Guayana creates 105% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 34 away

creates per match

Minervén
0.75
Diamantes de Guayana
1.09

allows per match

Minervén
3.25
Diamantes de Guayana
1.38

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par
Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Diamantes de Guayana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Minervén or draw
38%
Minervén or Diamantes de Guayana
80%
Draw or Diamantes de Guayana
82%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+
6%
Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals
65%
Minervén 2+ goals
29%
Minervén 3+ goals
9%
Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals
89%
Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals
64%
Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)
22%
Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Diamantes de Guayana away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.09 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Minervén scores more
18%
level
20%
Diamantes de Guayana scores more
62%

Diamantes de Guayana at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Diamantes de Guayana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minervén face Diamantes de Guayana (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Minervén hosting Diamantes de Guayana. Match starts April 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.