Minervén 1–2 Atlético La Cruz: Result & Stats

Minervén

FT

1 – 2

Atlético La Cruz

Unknown 43'

M. Dulcey 76'

Benavides Jesus 50'

8/29/2021

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Minervén16%

×Draw20%

Atlético La Cruz64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinervénExpected goals in this matchAtlético La Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.17

Minervén

1.00

Atlético La Cruz

2.17

Atlético La Cruz creates 117% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 50 away

0.75

creates per match

1.08

3.25

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Minervén

0.75

Atlético La Cruz

1.08

allows per match

Minervén

3.25

Atlético La Cruz

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minervén+0.00on par

Atlético La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minervén ↓

Atlético La Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Minervén or draw

36%

Minervén or Atlético La Cruz

80%

Draw or Atlético La Cruz

84%

Winning margin

Minervén wins by 2+

6%

Atlético La Cruz wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Minervén 1+ goals

63%

Minervén 2+ goals

26%

Minervén 3+ goals

8%

Atlético La Cruz 1+ goals

89%

Atlético La Cruz 2+ goals

64%

Atlético La Cruz 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Minervén (draw refunded)

20%

Atlético La Cruz (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minervén at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Atlético La Cruz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minervén attack 0.75 + Atlético La Cruz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atlético La Cruz attack 1.08 + Minervén defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Minervén scores more

16%

level

20%

Atlético La Cruz scores more

64%

Atlético La Cruz at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlético La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

50'

Benavides Jesus

76'

M. Dulcey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff